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Three Horizons

What is it?

The Three Horizons framework was developed by Bill Sharpe as a tool for thinking about the future. It helps individuals and organizations explore different future scenarios and plan for change.

The framework divides future possibilities into three "horizons" or time frames:

  1. Horizon 1: The present or near future, where current systems, practices, and mindsets dominate.
  2. Horizon 2: The transition period, where emerging trends, innovations, and changes start to challenge existing systems.
  3. Horizon 3: The long-term, where transformative changes and completely new ways of thinking and doing are possible.

The purpose of the Three Horizons framework is to help people recognize and plan for the different stages of change that might unfold. Horizon 1 represents the status quo, Horizon 2 is where things begin to shift, and Horizon 3 is where the future could look radically different. By analyzing these horizons, organizations and individuals can better navigate the complexity of change, recognize opportunities, and prepare for future challenges.

How to use it?

Map the situation (Horizon 1)

  • What: Identify the current systems, practices, and mindsets that define the present. Focus on the status quo and what is working or not working right now.
  • How: Reflect on the present state of affairs. What are the existing structures, challenges, and assumptions? This is your starting point—understanding where you are helps you identify areas for change.
  • What: Look for emerging trends, innovations, and shifts that are challenging the current systems. This is the period of change, where new ideas and practices begin to take root.
  • How: Observe what’s evolving in your field or life. What new technologies, behaviors, or policies are gaining momentum? Think about what could disrupt the current system and begin to influence the future.

Envision radical futures (Horizons 3)

  • What: Think about the long-term future and what could happen if current trends continue or transform radically. This is where you imagine bold, transformative changes.
  • How: Look beyond the immediate horizon to envision a future that may be very different from today. What do you hope the future could look like? What bold innovations or shifts could completely change your world or industry?

Adapting the practice

The Three Horizons framework can be adapted to reflect a perspective based on the Past, Present, and Future to better understand the evolution of systems or organizations over time.

Past (Horizon 1)

  • What: Understand the history and origins of the systems or practices in place. Reflect on how things were done in the past and how those practices have shaped the present.
  • How: Investigate what worked historically, what challenges were overcome, and what lessons were learned. This helps you recognize the foundations that the current systems are built upon.

     

Present (Horizon 2)

  • What: Focus on the present moment, where the existing systems, behaviors, and challenges are currently at play. This is the time when old systems are being challenged by emerging trends.
  • How Analyze the current landscape. What are the forces disrupting or evolving existing systems? What new opportunities or challenges are arising that are reshaping the way things are done?

Future (Horizon 3)

  • What: Look ahead and envision potential future scenarios, focusing on long-term transformational change. This could include radical shifts that are currently not possible or imaginable.
  • How: Think about how the changes occurring in the present could lead to new systems, values, or technologies in the future. What major shifts or innovations could reshape the future world or industry? How do you want the future to unfold?

 

 

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