Skip to main content

Three Horizons

What is it?

The Three Horizons framework was developed by Bill Sharpe as a tool for thinking about the future. It helps individuals and organizations explore different future scenarios and plan for change.

The framework divides future possibilities into three "horizons" or time frames:

  1. Horizon 1: The present or near future, where current systems, practices, and mindsets dominate.
  2. Horizon 2: The transition period, where emerging trends, innovations, and changes start to challenge existing systems.
  3. Horizon 3: The long-term, where transformative changes and completely new ways of thinking and doing are possible.

The purpose of the Three Horizons framework is to help people recognize and plan for the different stages of change that might unfold. Horizon 1 represents the status quo, Horizon 2 is where things begin to shift, and Horizon 3 is where the future could look radically different. By analyzing these horizons, organizations and individuals can better navigate the complexity of change, recognize opportunities, and prepare for future challenges.

How to use it?

Map the situation (Horizon 1)

  • What: Identify the current systems, practices, and mindsets that define the present. Focus on the status quo and what is working or not working right now.
  • How: Reflect on the present state of affairs. What are the existing structures, challenges, and assumptions? This is your starting point—understanding where you are helps you identify areas for change.
  • What: Look for emerging trends, innovations, and shifts that are challenging the current systems. This is the period of change, where new ideas and practices begin to take root.
  • How: Observe what’s evolving in your field or life. What new technologies, behaviors, or policies are gaining momentum? Think about what could disrupt the current system and begin to influence the future.

Envision radical futures (Horizons 3)

  • What: Think about the long-term future and what could happen if current trends continue or transform radically. This is where you imagine bold, transformative changes.
  • How: Look beyond the immediate horizon to envision a future that may be very different from today. What do you hope the future could look like? What bold innovations or shifts could completely change your world or industry?

Adapting the practice

The Three Horizons framework can be adapted to reflect a perspective based on the Past, Present, and Future to better understand the evolution of systems or organizations over time.

Past (Horizon 1)

  • What: Understand the history and origins of the systems or practices in place. Reflect on how things were done in the past and how those practices have shaped the present.
  • How: Investigate what worked historically, what challenges were overcome, and what lessons were learned. This helps you recognize the foundations that the current systems are built upon.

Present (Horizon 2)

  • What: Focus on the present moment, where the existing systems, behaviors, and challenges are currently at play. This is the time when old systems are being challenged by emerging trends.
  • How Analyze the current landscape. What are the forces disrupting or evolving existing systems? What new opportunities or challenges are arising that are reshaping the way things are done?

Future (Horizon 3)

  • What: Look ahead and envision potential future scenarios, focusing on long-term transformational change. This could include radical shifts that are currently not possible or imaginable.
  • How: Think about how the changes occurring in the present could lead to new systems, values, or technologies in the future. What major shifts or innovations could reshape the future world or industry? How do you want the future to unfold?

Example in arts and culture

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on gig workers in the arts and culture sector, affecting how they work, their income, and the opportunities available to them. By applying the Past, Present, and Future framework, we can understand the evolution of gig work in the arts and culture industry and how it might shape the future.

Past (Horizon 1)

  • What: Reflect on the pre-pandemic state of gig work in the arts and culture sector, which was already an essential part of the workforce but often faced challenges like lack of benefits, unstable income, and inconsistent job opportunities.
  • How: Before the pandemic, gig workers in the arts—such as performers, freelancers, curators, and technicians—relied on temporary contracts or project-based work. Many were self-employed, working in a system that lacked job security, health benefits, and retirement plans. While this model allowed flexibility, it also left many vulnerable to economic shifts. For example, artists performing in live venues or working on short-term contracts often struggled to make a sustainable living.
  • Impact: Gig work in the arts and culture was characterized by precariousness, with artists and cultural workers relying on a patchwork of income sources, often without sufficient social safety nets.

Present (Horizon 2)

  • What Analyze how gig work in the arts and culture sector has evolved during and after the pandemic, focusing on the disruptions caused by lockdowns, remote work, and the shift to digital platforms.
  • How: The pandemic forced many artists and gig workers in the arts to adapt quickly to new ways of working. With physical venues closed and social distancing measures in place, many turned to digital platforms, offering virtual performances, online workshops, and digital art sales. Streaming platforms, social media, and virtual events became key sources of income. Some gig workers transitioned to creating content for platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and Patreon, monetizing their work through sponsorships, donations, and subscription models.
  • Impact: The present has seen a shift toward more virtual and digital gigs, expanding the global reach for artists. However, many gig workers still face challenges such as inconsistent pay, lack of long-term contracts, and reliance on platforms that take a significant cut of earnings. The gig economy is now more diversified, but it remains precarious, with many workers unsure of how sustainable these new models are in the long term.

Future (Horizon 3)

  • What: Imagine the long-term future of gig work in the arts and culture sector, considering how emerging trends such as automation, digital transformation, and new economic models might reshape the industry.
  • How: The future of gig work in the arts could be characterized by more professionalized and stable opportunities through new models of collective bargaining, mutual aid networks, or stronger unions for freelance workers. Artists might leverage blockchain technology to create decentralized platforms where they can sell their work directly to consumers, bypassing intermediaries and ensuring fairer compensation. Additionally, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR) could open up entirely new forms of digital art, performance, and experiences, requiring new types of gig work. The rise of creator economies and NFTs (non-fungible tokens) could also allow artists to generate revenue from their work in innovative ways, ensuring more control over their intellectual property.
  • Impact: The future may offer more financial stability and autonomy for gig workers in the arts. Technological advancements could lead to greater democratization of artistic production and consumption, allowing more artists to thrive in a decentralized, self-directed environment. However, this future also raises questions about accessibility, inequality, and the role of large tech companies in shaping the arts economy.

Back to top